德尔菲法（也称专家调查法）

指邀请专家对各项指标进行权重设置，将汇总平均后的结果反馈给专家，再次征询意见，经过多次反复，逐步取得比较一致结果的方法。

Delphi method

The  Delphi method is a structured communication technique or method,  originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method  which relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in  two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator or change agent  provides an anonymised summary of the experts' forecasts from the  previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments.  Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light  of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that  during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group  will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is  stopped after a predefined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds,  achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median  scores of the final rounds determine the results.